Fidelity warns: Over 28% of Bitcoin will be locked up by the end of the year

Fidelity Digital Assets has released a new research report indicating that Bitcoin is entering a new era dominated by scarcity. The report predicts that by the end of 2025, over 28% of the total Bitcoin supply (21 million coins) will be in a non-liquid state due to long-term holding and corporate ownership, meaning that Bitcoin will be locked away for an extended period.

Transition from Abundant Supply to Scarcity

The report's author, Zack Wainwright, notes that as 95% of the total Bitcoin supply approaches circulation, the market is transitioning from an abundant supply to a scarce supply. The report identifies two main factors contributing to Bitcoin's non-liquidity: first, long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for more than seven years; and second, publicly traded companies holding at least 1,000 BTC. Wainwright estimates that these two categories of holders will collectively own over 6 million Bitcoins by the end of 2025.

Currently, publicly traded companies hold over 830,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 4% of the circulating supply, with 97% concentrated in companies holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins. However, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries, the combined holdings of public and private companies may be as high as 1.3 million Bitcoins, significantly exceeding the aforementioned figure.

Increasing Trend of Long-term Holders

By combining data from long-term holders and corporate holders, the report shows that the trend of Bitcoin holding is accelerating, with trading volumes relatively decreasing. Since the third quarter of 2024, publicly traded companies have actively allocated Bitcoin, further increasing the non-liquid supply.

Forecast for Non-liquid Assets by 2032

Looking ahead, the Fidelity report predicts that by 2032, nearly 42% of the current circulating supply (over 8.3 million BTC) will become non-liquid assets. The report concludes that as more entities hold Bitcoin long-term, its scarcity will increasingly become a focal point of market attention. It also mentions that if the trend of national adoption of Bitcoin strengthens and the regulatory environment continues to evolve, the growth rate of non-liquid supply may be even more pronounced.

Although the report does not explicitly mention it, a similar trend is likely unfolding in the Ethereum market. Digital asset wallets have accumulated over 4% of the total Ethereum supply in just a few months, and since the launch of Ethereum ETFs last year, their absorption has exceeded 5.5% of the total supply.

This report highlights significant changes in the Bitcoin market structure and the growing willingness of institutional investors to hold Bitcoin long-term, introducing new variables for Bitcoin's price movements and market supply-demand dynamics.